What To Know
- Thailand has moved a step closer to being removed from the United States Treasury’s currency Monitoring List after meeting only one of the three assessment criteria in the latest review, signaling progress in the country’s external economic position while remaining under Washington’s observation.
- These include maintaining a bilateral goods and services surplus with the United States of at least US$15 billion, recording a current-account surplus of at least 3% of gross domestic product, and conducting persistent net foreign-exchange purchases equivalent to at least 2% of GDP over at least eight months within a year.
Bangkok Business News: Thailand has moved a step closer to being removed from the United States Treasury’s currency Monitoring List after meeting only one of the three assessment criteria in the latest review, signaling progress in the country’s external economic position while remaining under Washington’s observation. The Treasury’s report, released on July 23, found that no major trading partner manipulated its currency to secure an unfair competitive advantage during the four quarters ending in December 2025. Thailand’s latest standing suggests that if current trends continue, it could be taken off the watchlist in the next reporting cycle.
Image Credit: Bangkok Business News
The latest findings indicate that Thailand’s inclusion on the Monitoring List is now based solely on its sizeable bilateral trade surplus with the United States, while it no longer meets the other two qualifying thresholds. This Bangkok Business News report highlights that the development reflects a notable shift compared with previous assessments, bringing the country closer to exiting the list after years of heightened scrutiny. Although Thailand remains among the economies monitored by Washington, the latest evaluation suggests that its exchange-rate management and broader macroeconomic policies have aligned more closely with US expectations.
Thailand Edges Closer to Removal
The US Treasury confirmed that 10 economies remain on its Monitoring List, namely China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland. All were also included in the January 2026 report.
However, Thailand, Singapore and Switzerland now satisfy only one of the three criteria used to determine whether closer monitoring is warranted. According to the Treasury, those economies will be removed from the Monitoring List if they continue to meet fewer than two of the required thresholds in the next reporting period.
Importantly, inclusion on the Monitoring List does not mean a country has been officially labeled a currency manipulator. Instead, it signifies that exchange-rate practices and broader economic policies continue to receive closer review from US authorities.
Only One Criterion Met
The US Treasury evaluates major trading partners under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 using three benchmarks. These include maintaining a bilateral goods and services surplus with the United States of at least US$15 billion, recording a current-account surplus of at least 3% of gross domestic product, and conducting persistent net foreign-exchange purchases equivalent to at least 2% of GDP over at least eight months within a year.
Normally, an economy is placed on the Monitoring List after meeting at least two of these three conditions.
Thailand met only the bilateral trade-surplus threshold during 2025. The country posted a goods and services surplus with the United States totaling US$72 billion, approximately 58% higher than the previous year. The increase was driven largely by merchandise exports, as businesses accelerated shipments ahead of anticipated US tariff measures while electronics exports continued to expand strongly.
Advanced-technology products represented around half of Thailand’s exports to the US market, underlining the growing importance of high-value manufacturing and technology-related industries in bilateral trade.
External Accounts Improve
Thailand’s current-account surplus reached 2.8% of GDP in 2025, improving from 2.2% a year earlier but remaining below the Treasury’s 3% threshold.
The improvement reflected stronger goods exports, sustained global demand for technology and artificial-intelligence-related products, and a narrowing deficit in services.
Meanwhile, Thai authorities reported net foreign-exchange purchases totaling US$10 billion during 2025, equivalent to approximately 1.8% of GDP. Although intervention occurred during 10 months of the year, the total value remained below the required 2% threshold, meaning Thailand did not satisfy the third criterion.
The Treasury observed that Thailand’s intervention appeared primarily aimed at smoothing periods of rapid baht appreciation rather than weakening the currency to improve export competitiveness. During the reporting period, the baht appreciated by about 9% against the US dollar, reinforcing the Treasury’s view that authorities were managing market volatility instead of pursuing an unfair trade advantage.
Greater Transparency from Thailand
The report also noted continued improvements in transparency by Thai monetary authorities.
Under a joint statement signed on October 28, 2025, with the US Treasury, the Bank of Thailand committed to publishing information on its foreign-exchange interventions at least twice annually, with a three-month reporting delay.
That commitment represents a significant enhancement in disclosure standards and is expected to strengthen confidence in Thailand’s exchange-rate framework while addressing longstanding concerns regarding transparency in currency management.
Washington Expands Currency Review
The latest Treasury report also reflects a broader approach toward assessing exchange-rate policies.
Previous reviews focused primarily on whether governments intervened to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the US dollar, thereby making exports more competitive.
The Treasury now examines whether governments also intervene during periods of currency depreciation and whether they apply consistent policies regardless of exchange-rate direction. The expanded review further considers activities undertaken through state-owned banks, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other public institutions that could influence exchange rates outside direct central-bank intervention.
During 2025, the trade-weighted US dollar weakened by 7.5%, including an 8.4% decline against advanced-economy currencies. Despite the decline, the dollar’s real effective exchange rate remained about 12% above its 20-year average at the end of March 2026.
Japan, another economy on the Monitoring List, finished 2025 with the yen largely unchanged against the dollar despite substantial fluctuations throughout the year. According to the Treasury, Japanese authorities did not undertake official foreign-exchange intervention during the reporting period.
China Remains Under Intense Scrutiny
China also remained on the Monitoring List but was not designated a currency manipulator.
The Treasury criticized Beijing for providing the lowest level of transparency among major trading partners regarding foreign-exchange operations, noting that China remains the only assessed economy that does not publish intervention data.
Although the renminbi appreciated 4.4% against the US dollar during 2025, it weakened against China’s broader trade-weighted currency basket and in real effective terms. The Treasury also cited International Monetary Fund estimates suggesting the renminbi remains significantly undervalued.
US officials warned that China could face a formal currency manipulation designation in a future report if evidence emerges that authorities are using either direct or indirect measures to suppress appreciation of the renminbi. The decision not to designate China followed bipartisan calls from US lawmakers urging stronger action and closer coordination with fellow Group of Seven governments.
Thailand’s latest assessment marks meaningful progress toward leaving the Monitoring List while reinforcing confidence in the country’s currency management and economic policy framework. If the nation continues meeting only one of the Treasury’s three assessment criteria in the next reporting period, it is expected to be removed from the watchlist, reducing international scrutiny and highlighting Thailand’s continued commitment to greater transparency and balanced foreign-exchange practices.
For the latest on Thailand’s currency issues, keep on logging to Bangkok Business News.
