Thailand Export Growth Slows as Trump Tariffs Bite

Bangkok Business News: Export boom shows signs of strain

Thailand’s remarkable 13-month streak of export growth is facing a sudden slowdown as new US tariffs take effect and a stronger baht adds more pressure on the country’s exporters. This Bangkok Business News report highlights that while July exports surged 11 percent to reach $28.58 billion, the momentum may not last as the global trade environment shifts dramatically.

Thailand exports are facing a slump due to recent tariffs imposed by Trump
Image Credit: AI-Generated

Artificial boost from pre tariff stockpiling

Officials at the Ministry of Commerce admit that recent strong numbers have been artificially inflated. Many international buyers rushed to stockpile goods before the 19 percent US tariff rate came into force in August, creating an unsustainable surge in orders. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, said that while the government managed to negotiate the tariff down from an initially threatened 36 percent, the impact on Thailand’s competitiveness remains significant. He added that the next five months will be crucial in deciding whether the country can meet its 2–3 percent annual export growth target.

Commerce ministry prepares for a policy reset

The Commerce Ministry is already considering revisions to its full-year forecast. A special consultation will soon be held with major business organizations, including the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries, and the Thai National Shippers’ Council, to reassess growth expectations once the August data becomes available. Although the first seven months of the year delivered 14.4 percent growth, optimism has given way to caution as the new trade conditions set in.

Strong demand in key product categories

The recent export surge has been spread across multiple sectors. Agricultural shipments grew 21.5 percent in July, driven by fruits, poultry, pet food, and wheat products. Industrial goods also performed strongly, with computers and parts, rubber items, machinery, electronic circuit boards, and plastics helping push industrial exports up 14 percent for the month and 18 percent across the year to date. Thailand’s trade relationship with the US remained robust, generating a $4.55 billion surplus in July. However, trade with China remains unbalanced, as the deficit widened with imports at $9.65 billion compared to exports of just $3.63 billion.

Growing concerns for the remainder of 2025

Industry leaders are warning of a sharp slowdown ahead. Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, president of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, has predicted that third-quarter export growth could stagnate or even fall into negative territory. He noted that beyond US trade measures, the appreciation of the baht is further eroding competitiveness. From his discussions with industrial groups, the shared view is that export growth could drop to zero in the months ahead, raising alarms about meeting yearly targets.

Outlook for Thai exporters

Thailand’s export performance has been a key driver of economic stability, but the latest developments show how vulnerable the country remains to global political shifts and currency fluctuations. Policymakers are expected to work more closely with private sector leaders to cushion the impact, but the reality is that exporters now face a far tougher road. The combination of higher tariffs, slowing demand, and currency pressures will likely test resilience in every sector, making the rest of the year a period of adjustment rather than expansion.

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