What To Know
- It also depends on US trade restrictions not expanding further and on new investments in Thailand’s electronics, AI and EV-linked industries beginning to boost export capacity.
- Policymakers say the forecasts align with views from the Bank of Thailand and the IMF, both of which have cautioned about the global slowdown and its implications for emerging markets like Thailand.
Bangkok Business News: Exports Outlook Softens for 2026
Thailand’s export sector is heading into a challenging 2026 as the Commerce Ministry warns of increasing downside risks driven by global economic uncertainty, geopolitical friction and currency pressures. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun said that although 2025 shipments are now expected to outperform earlier targets, next year could see outcomes ranging from mild growth to a significant contraction. In the latest projections, the ministry outlined three possible paths depending on global recovery trends, trade conditions and domestic competitiveness. This Bangkok Business News report highlights the shifting economic climate and the growing concerns that policymakers and exporters must now factor into their planning.
Thailand faces a fragile export outlook as global risks and currency pressures intensify.
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Strong 2025 Momentum Masks Fragile Global Conditions Ahead
For 2025, export values are projected at either US$332,982.1 million, reflecting 10.7 percent growth, or US$334,982.1 million, equivalent to 11.4 percent growth. The unexpectedly strong performance this year is attributed to accelerated imports from trading partners who rushed orders ahead of possible tariff hikes. However, 2026 will bring a markedly different environment as inventories remain high and global demand begins to soften. The Ministry’s projections emphasize that despite Thailand’s resilience, the external landscape remains volatile.
Best Case Scenario Offers Modest Growth
Under the most favorable outlook, exports in 2026 would edge up by 1.1 percent to US$337,655 million. This assumes faster than expected recoveries in key markets including the United States, China, Europe, Japan and ASEAN. It also depends on US trade restrictions not expanding further and on new investments in Thailand’s electronics, AI and EV-linked industries beginning to boost export capacity.
Baseline Scenario Points to Mild Decline
The central projection foresees a 1 percent contraction to around US$330,642 million. After the rapid expansion of 2025, a natural normalization is expected as global demand cools. Softer crude oil prices, a stronger baht and slower growth among major economies would add pressure on export competitiveness and earnings.
Worst Case Scenario Signals Deeper Contraction
If trade barriers from the US widen sharply or global supply chains face renewed disruption, exports could drop by 3.1 percent to US$323,628 million. A stronger baht and lower commodity prices would further erode revenue and weaken Thailand’s export engine at a critical time.
Risks Mount but Sector Still Expected to Add Economic Value
Despite the challenging outlook, the ministry expects exports to still generate an additional 91.956 billion baht in value for the economy, amounting to around 0.46 percent of GDP. Policymakers say the forecasts align with views from the Bank of Thailand and the IMF, both of which have cautioned about the global slowdown and its implications for emerging markets like Thailand. As the country prepares for 2026, exporters will need to brace for fluctuating demand, currency shifts and unpredictable trade policies while ensuring long-term resilience through diversification and new-industry investment.
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